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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd