Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".